CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2020 Dec 08 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2791 (S15, L=221) was inactive
and decayed to plage. Region 2790 (S22W23, Hsx/alpha) produced a long
duration C7 flare which resulted in a full halo CME as observed in
coronagraph imagery. A consensus of model runs suggest speeds between
830-880 km/s, and arrival in the latter half of 09 Dec.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flares 08-10 Dec.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate 08-10 Dec, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, reflected
ambient conditions. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 2 to 5 nT
and the Bz component underwent mainly weak deviations. Solar wind speed
averaged 350-400 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive with
brief excursions into a negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind is anticipated to continue as primarily a slow
regime on 08 Dec. Elevated conditions are likely 09-10 Dec with the
combined influence of a weak, negative polarity CH and arrival of a CME
from the 07 Dec event.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet 08 Dec. G1
(Minor) storm conditions are likely 09-10 Dec due to the combined
effects of a weak, negative polarity CH and the arrival of a CME from
the 07 Dec event.

Actual time was taken from simulation at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 64
Issue Time: 2020 Dec 08 1506 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Dec 09:  G1 (Minor)   Dec 10:  G3 (Strong)   Dec 11:  G2 (Moderate)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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